Friday, May 1, 2009

Does the H stand for Hysteria?


Obviously every one is talking (and blogging, and twittering) about the H1N1. I suppose I will jump on that bandwagon and give my thoughts on this. First off; It's like a disease apocalypse movie! Or, you know, could be, if the right mutations were to take place. Scary stuff? Given the numbers, most of the fears are unfounded. 300 or so confirmed cases, in over a month? And the only death in the US was a child from Mexico, so it's really not even a US death. While the whole thing is still pretty surreal as a threat, they did close down the local school district due to a 'possible case'. Turns out it was allergies or some such. That hits a little close to home, but I sure don't know any one with this flu, and certainly people aren't dropping dead. If it mutates and becomes less treatable, we could have a major crisis. That's a big IF.

Joe Biden apparently scared every one, even though I'd say his advice was not that far off. When there is a new virus going around, you should avoid situations that could spread it. It only takes 1 person to become 2, 2 to become 4, and so on. I still don't understand why it's the social norm for people to cough covering their mouths with their hand. Why not use the crook of your elbow, for example? Your hands are touching everything ALL the time.

Anyway, there's three outcomes.
1) A few people die. (~5000) (It quiets down in a month and we all go back to our normal lives, worry free.)
2) A good amount of people die. (~100,000 to 100,000,000) (Riots, looting, not enough medicine, very damaging to our societal structure.)
3) 98% of the population dies. (Billions) (Government collapse, back to savagery)

We're somewhere at the very low end of #1, and not even close to #2. Since this is a new, unpredictable virus, we could hit #2 before this is done. No one wants to imagine #3. These things are exponential, so it could snowball out of control very quickly, no matter how ready the world thinks they are. Could you imagine if what was happening in Mexico City was happening everywhere? How would we really handle that? I'd say "not very well."

While half the politicians sit there telling the doctors "You're making people panic!" and the other half thinks no one is panicking enough, they're both right. Restricting some travel, taking more hygiene precautions, and staying away from that coughing guy over there -- Good ideas. It would definitely lessen the blow if this were to become a true, deadly pandemic. Over-reacting is slaughtering hundreds of thousands of pigs (Good job, Egypt) thinking it will stop the disease. Telling people to stay away from others, and sneezing a little less on your friends -- That's not over-reacting.

As for Egypt's pig slaughter and the opportunists attempting to get the US-Mexico border closed, they're just preying on the situation, seeing an opening to finally get their political/religious stance moved ahead quicker.

More present now than before this incident; we all carry on, hoping one day we don't wake up to a mega-disaster. Don't we do that every day?

3 comments:

Sean Payne said...

Nice post. I have to say that it has become quite overly blown out of proportion. Everybody talks about this stupid thing like its going to kill the world, but nobody remembers that the regular flu kills tens of thousands *a year* - every year. So, a handful of people is enough to cause a pandemic? Then I think we should all head to the bunkers when people have pneumonia, or something serious. Its really annoying to hear about on the news - my family sat through our entire dinner listening to the news talk *nonstop* about it. And nobody has even mentioned a peep about the supposed news about Mexico's politicians possibly legalizing drugs in an attempt to combat the drug lords there.
I agree a lot of people (include my fiancee's father) who are using this illness as a scapegoat to further their ideological goals and its not right. Its coincidental, like most things, but doesn't mean there is any conceivable relationship.
I just hope people will get their heads out of their arses and realize that things shouldn't be considered a "pandemic" until thousands are afflicted, hundreds are dying, few remedies are effective, and it poses a very significant threat. Kinda like if what happened in Resident Evil...

Anonymous said...

The home town case was confirmed positive. The 1918 flue pandemic started quiet and then died away as summer came, then flared up big-time the next winter. Only time will tell.

Anonymous said...

H stands for Haemagglutinin.